Pigskin Preacher's 2008 NFL Preview

Welcome NFL Fans!

Thanks for dropping in on my 5th Annual Preacher's NFL Preview.  If you're like me you've spent an entire off-season waiting for the these days - the days when all 32 teams have an unblemished record and an equal shot at making their way to wins, wildcards or division titles and beyond.  Well, almost all 32 teams - I mean we can't really say the Falcons and the... Nah, I'm getting ahead of myself.

Your team has a shot.

I'm going to tell you just how legitimate a shot your team should have this year.  But all in good fun, my friends.  At the end of the day we are friends.  We love the NFL.  We love our teams.  We love the rivalry between our teams and others.  We love the stories.  We love the debates.  We love the game.

So, welcome.  Come on it and poke around.  My aim is to make you smile.  Maybe to make you nod in agreement in a couple of places.  Maybe to convince you that I need my head examined in others.  I will take a swing at some of your favorite players, coaches and franchises.  I'll share my opinion - and ask you to keep in mind an old adage my Dad was fond of using: "Opinions are like asses; everybody's got one... and now I'm going to show you mine!" 

How Do I Do It?

People do want to know just how I do it.

Last year, for instance, Giants fans wanted to know how I could possibly have gotten it so WRONG!  I admit, I wasn't sold on the G-men making the playoffs, let alone winning the Lombardi Trophy.  Shoot, I didn't think Tom Coughlin would survive the season.  I was sure Tony Soprano was going to fit him for cement shoes by week 8!  How did I get it wrong?  I looked at the indicators.  Entering last year, Coughlin had been embattled for a couple of seasons, Tiki jumped a train out of town, Strahan was conflicted about whether he would rather head slap offensive linemen or slam down cocktails on Sunday afternoons, and Eli had that deer-in-the-headlights look.  Even Giant fans must admit, it didn't look... uh... Super.

But, figure in some unforeseeable factors.  Osi.  No one saw the man coming.  The rough start and players-only meetings.  A team that played on the road better than they played at home.  And, the Giants went on to stun us all.

But how have I also managed to get it RIGHT so often?  You read my NFL Pigskin Preacher blog over at TBOnline and you see me carry a 75% accuracy on my weekly picks - that's better than Vegas, baby!  You've seen me, over these last five years, nail some of the MVP's and Coaches of the Year, as well as which Coaches will be fired, and even call the Madden Curse for you.  Man, I even called the fact that last year would not be Brett Favre's last in the NFL for you!  (Many of you thought I bungled that one, eh?) 

How do I do it?  How do I get so much right?  The same way I get some of it wrong.  I look at the indicators.  So, my method breaks down when an Orlando Pace is lost for the year on the first series of a week one game.  My plan goes awry when I forecast the Ravens with a healthy Steve McNair at the helm - and there he stands in week one, on national television, with his pants pulled down to his cleats and a team of trainers wrapping his groin in tape!  I'm telling you, the man never recovered from the embarrassment.  And Kyle Boller?  KYLE BOLLER???

So you see, what I am really trying to say is when I get it RIGHT, I am just that good.  When I get it WRONG, there's obviously a very good reason.  But seriously, these long range forecasts are really just a shot in the dark... sort of like the Falcons... UGH!  There I go again.

So what do you say we forecast the 2008 season, eh?

The AFC East

The Pats fell a breath short of the Super Bowl two seasons ago.  They fell a breath short of finishing the perfect season in the Super Bowl last year.  Does anyone in the world not expect them to be in the mix again?  The Jets spent a ton of money to improve their team.  They've made big improvement - and I'm not necessarily talking about Brett Favre - but the schedule makers might have done the Jets the biggest favor.  The Bills have struggled on offense of years and spend time tweaking their defense every off-season.  Go figure.  And then there is the Tuna landing in Miami to resurrect the Dolphins.  Hey, isn't Dolphins getting caught up in Tuna nets a big deal with the PETA and Greenpeace people?

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

I have one concern with the Patriots.  Tom Brady's health.  And every Patriot fan knows exactly what I am talking about, whether they admit it or not.  We last saw the superhero QB being tossed about like a rag-doll in the Super Bowl.  Then we watched Matt Cassell play the entire pre-season as starter, and he inspired more laughter than confidence.  This team goes deep if Brady stays on his feet.  This team is in deep if he doesn't.  Give them 12 wins with Brady.  All bets are off without him.

NEW YORK JETS

If Brett Favre has done one thing, he has brought excitement to the Jets fan base.  He will also bring great excitement.  That's what Brett does.  Let's be consistent, though.  He will also bring interceptions.  That's also what Brett does.  The key to the Jets season is going to be on the other side of the ball.  Have the Jets upgraded that defense enough to get the ball back, and give Brett second and third chances?  Time will tell.  I say, they come in second in this division only because the other teams are the Bills and the Dolphins.  I am sure this will endear me to Jets fans - eight wins, maybe nine.

BUFFALO BILLS

Let's be honest, this team would rather be in Canada.  By season's end, I'll bet Dick Jauron will be.  The only improvement that they can point to on offense is that Trent Edwards is a year older.  Even in looking back to their 2007 season, the seven wins that they amassed included a couple of games where they played significantly over their heads.  I'm sorry Bills fans.  Seven wins again this year would be the best I could forecast.  I'm guessing less.  And I'm advising Dick Jauron to warm up the resume.

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Here's a ray of optimism from the Preacher.  They've upgraded their coaching staff.  They've upgraded their QB position - yes, I think Chad Pennington is a good fit, not for his arm but for his cerebral manner of play.  As much as I've dogged Ricky Williams these last few years (come on, he's made it so easy), if he can manage to keep hitting the specimen cup with clean urine, the Dolphins will be an improved team.  The loss of Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas will hurt, though, mark my words.  More than play, they were the soul of that defense and locker room.  My optimism says five wins, perhaps. 

The AFC North

This is one of those divisions that I bungled (not to be confused with the Bengals) on pretty bad last year.  I mean, did you see McNair on the sideline?  Yeesh!  Oh, and Romeo Crennell finding a QB in Derek Anderson?  The Cincinnati Bengals spending all their time in police line-ups?  Okay, well that part was expected, anyhow.  This year, I'm sure, things will be back to normal.  Back to normal means...

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Coach Mike Tomlin will have the Steelers competing, as they always seem to do.  Rookie back Rashard Mendenhall is going to be a big addition.  Any defense that Dick LeBeau fields will be among the league's best.  Steelers will be a force to reckon with again this year.  But (you had a feeling this was coming), the Steelers have what looks to be the toughest schedule in the NFL, and games against their division foes always have the potential to be slugfests.  They'll win this division with 9 or 10 wins.

CLEVELAND BROWNS

If an NFL defensive coordinator is one thing, he must be a quick study.  NFL de-co's have to be much more prepared for Derek Anderson than they were last season.  Look for the pressure on him to greatly increase, and look for Romeo and his staff to have to altar their blocking schemes to keep him alive.  We may get more than a sniff of Brady Quinn this season.  The Browns will grind out another competitive year.  Give them eight wins.

CINCINNATI BENGALS

More of the same?  Well, Chris Henry is back.  (Imagine the "CLANG/CLANG" jail door slamming sound from the television show Law & Order here.)  You know what, I'm going to just be brave enough to say it - this team would be smoking good if they could just get out of their own way, and that, my friends, is an indication that the Coach isn't doing his job.  The Bengals have all the talent on their roster a team could hope for, but this guy's whining about this, that guy's causing a distraction about that.  The inmates are running the asylum (no pun intended).  You doubt me? Chad Johnson was sinking his pre-season energy into legally changing his name to Chad Ocho-Cinco, for crying out loud!  Mark my words: Bengals =six wins and twice as many arrests before the year is over.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

If the Ravens were in the hospital, the doctors would be recommending that family members be gathered.  Holy cow!  This team has been gutted.  It's not all bad.  I will give them the inside track on the number one draft pick in 2009.  How bad is it?  The Ravens were hoping that Kyle Boller would be healthy enough to play this season.  Kyle BOLLER!  Look to the future and Joe Flacco.  He's going to grow up fast.  He will have to if he's going to survive.  Someone call Lloyd's of London, and look at four wins as a best possible outcome.

The AFC South

The AFC South may be the best division in football this season.  Go ahead, disagree with me.  Your favorite team doesn't want to see an AFC South team on their schedule.  I'll tip my hat early: two teams will make the playoffs from this division, and maybe three! 

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Nope.  This isn't a typo.  This will be the year that the Jags unseat the Colts as division champs.  Try to poke a hole in Jack Del Rio's team.  I'm telling you, this is one formidable franchise.  You know I hate the trendy picks, and this one seems to be a darling of many prognosticators.  But, this may be the year.  David Garrard demonstrated that his name belongs in the conversation with the Peytons and Toms.  Really, I just said that.  No, I don't do drugs.  Keep laughing.  I'll laugh with you, and we'll both watch the Jags run to 12 wins and deep (Did you hear me?  I said deep!) into the playoffs.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Make no mistake about it, I am not saying the Colts are done.  They'll be there in the end too.  But, let's be honest with ourselves, age is catching up with this club.  Take a look back at how many games each of their starting twenty-two missed last year.  Age.  There is still enough in the tank and there is more than enough in what it is the league's best coaching staff to make this a double digit win season, and a good playoff run.

TENNESSEE TITANS

I hate to keep talking QBs, but the Titans fortunes will really rest on how far along Vince Young has progressed.  Do you remember when all we could wonder was whether Vince Young or Matt Leinart had the brighter future ahead of them?  Jury is still out.  It is amazing what has happened since they convinced D-Lineman Albert Haynesworth to tackle players instead of stepping on their heads.  He went to the Pro-Bowl and has that team-leader aura about him now.  I say this team will be in the playoff hunt too, with about 9 or 10 wins, and by being competitive in every game they play.

HOUSTON TEXANS

Okay, Texan fans, I know you really don't like to hear from me.  It is true, I've dogged your Texans for playing like an expansion team every year since they entered the league.  Well, they have.  But, although it's taken seven years I see progress.  I'm on the Mario Williams bandwagon - do you recall when the argument was about Williams versus Reggie Bush?  No more questions about that, now are there.  I'm feeling a little out-of-my-normal-self.  As such, I'll give the Texans a shot at a .500 season.  And again, I promise: I am not on drugs.

The AFC West

We're back to my favorite four letter word: Norv.  I have to admit, it was injuries that kept the Chargers from the Super Bowl last season, not Norv.  But, there's always this year.  How about the Raiders?  JaMarcus Russell is a year removed from his extended holdout in a hammock in Louisiana.  Yes, but then there is still Al Davis.  Ah. 

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

They have to win the division.  I mean, look at it!  We're all wondering how well LaDainian Tomlinson will play this year.  We're all questioning whether Philip Rivers is the QB the Chargers bet on when they let Drew Brees blow over to Nawlins.  We're all wondering if Shawne Merriman will be a cripple for the rest of his life, having decided to play this season with only half his knee ligaments in tact.  Then there's Norv.  Yes, and then there's Norv.  Eleven wins (because six of them will come from within their own division), and a quick playoff exit. 

DENVER BRONCOS

Mike Shanahan will manage to get eight wins out of this team.  And no one outside of Denver will really care.  That is, except for Matt Leinart and Vince Young.  They'll be watching to see how far along Jay Cutler has come and to marvel at the fact that they were drafted ahead of him.  As I said, a mediocre season around .500.

OAKLAND RAIDERS

It is true!  The Raiders will not be last in their division!  That's only because Kansas City is in the division, but let's not rain on the parade.  Let's just say the Raiders still have much to address, like the owner writing weekly resignation letters for the Head Coach - that's a doosey.  Or how about the QB showing up to camp outweighing the O-Line in front of him - that's sort of... well... Jenny Craig.   And their propensity to collect cast-off players - Ashlie Lelie, for instance - which hasn't been as successful for the club as it once was.  All of this and more will lead them to a sub .500 year, I'm thinking six wins, maybe.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

If ever there were a case of Ownership/Managerial/Coaching malpractice, it was this past off-season in Kansas City.  So many glaring holes, and nothing - NOTHING! - done to address them.   The average age of Herm Edwards' team is something like, uh... nineteen, I think.  His coaching staff is balancing their time between teaching these kids to shave and how to conform to NFL uniform rules - "You tuck your jersey in, like this."  I have two words for you: Brodie Croyle.  I have two more: four wins.

The NFC East

The Cowboys are the class of the NFC.  Just ask them.  The Giants are still feeling disrespected.  The Eagles are below the radar.  The Redskins are, well... the Redskins.  Remember when this was the toughest division in football?  It lines up that way on paper, but I say, not so fast.  And, I've got some surprises for you.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Brian Westbrook alone makes this team a formidable foe.  Donovan McNabb has been much maligned, but he's still one of the most competitive QBs playing, no matter what T.O. has to say about it.  Last year I told you that the off-field distractions surrounding Andy Reid's kids would be their undoing.  I'm guessing that's a thing of the past - aren't all his kids in jail now?  Watch this team claw their way to double-digit wins.

DALLAS COWBOYS

They believe they're the best.  On paper, most analysts are ready to concur.  I say, wait just a minute.  They've said goodbye to one of their most productive ball-handlers in Julius Jones.  Behind T.O. they have no real playmaking receivers.  Their secondary is even more suspect that it was last year.  Is this team really the class of the NFC?  I say they're better than .500, but still one Tony Romo mishandle away from real success.  Hey, do you suppose Jessica Simpson will be at many games this year?

NEW YORK GIANTS

You know, I made so many friends at the end of last season among Giants fans.  I kept predicting doom and gloom for them and the fans peppered me with adoring mail and comments.  I miss those guys!  So, I'll toss down a few sobering Giants thoughts and watch my email and comments with great anticipation.  Here goes: No Strahan.  No Osi.  Deer-in-the-headlights-i.e.-Peyton-he's-not.  And then there's Coughlin.  The G-men, straining for the .500 mark like a nerd struggling on a chin-up bar.  How'd I do?

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

First, let me say I like the hiring of Jim Zorn.  Unfortunately it comes at the end of a few lost years in the third go-round with Joe Gibbs.  Consider this, first year coach: Your team responded very well to Todd Collins last year.  Why doth he sitteth on thy bench?  Hand the old man the keys.  Or ride with Jason Campbell to a five or six win season.  Your the Coach.

NFC North

Oh my gosh!  Have you heard?  Brett Favre retired, and then wanted to come back.  And the Packers... they didn't want him.  Can you believe it?  Oh, but the Vikings did.  But the Packers wouldn't let Favre go to the Vikings!  Oh my gosh!  So now he's a Jet.  Poor guy.  Oh, and do you remember the Bears?  You know, the team that went to the Super Bowl two years ago?  Well, child, let me tell you...

GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Favre-less variety Packers, that is.  Too many people fail to remember that prior to last season's dreamy Favre performance, there were a couple of years where fans in Green Bay WISHED Brett would retire.  I haven't forgotten.  Nor have I overlooked the fact that Aaron Rodgers has made the most out of that time.  The Pack is a good team.  They're a very well coached team.  And now that the soap-opera that was Brett Favre is gone, look for them to be a force to be reckoned with.  Packers in the double-digit wins and playoffs past the opening round.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

This team's strength is not Adrian Peterson.  It is their defense.  Their defense that keeps handing the ball back to Adrian Peterson!  The only problem with this scenario - and thereby the only thing standing in the way of my proclaiming great, great things for the Vikes - is that when Adrian takes the field, so does Tavaris Jackson.  It is too bad they couldn't land the aging Favre this off-season.  Because they're a QB away from scary.  Vikes just above .500 on the strength of their defense.

DETROIT LIONS

Okay, all together now: "Fire Matt Millen!"  How many years now has the entire world outside of the Detroit owner's box known what needs to be done?  And still they ride.  Okay, Jon Kitna is God's favorite QB, so that will get them a few wins.  If he makes another silly guarantee, that will earn them a few beatings.  Pride goeth before a fall, Jonny.  You've read that before.  So, I say that if they muzzle God's favorite QB, they should be in the approaching .500 crowd.

CHICAGO BEARS

My, oh my, how Da Bears have stumbled.  Oh, but help is on the way!  Kyle Orton?  ORTON?  I have to tell you, friends, I suspect this will be a long year for Lovie and Friends.  Could it be that just a couple of seasons removed from the Super Bowl and he will be on the hot-seat?  I fear it to be so.  Da Bears.  Da Last Place. 

The NFC South

The NASCAR division.  Also the division where it is en vogue to have worst to first finishers every season since re-alignment.  Do you think?  Nah.  Get real!   But, I do think another shake-up is in order.  I mean, the division was the Saints to lose last year... and they did.  The Bucs won it, but they did so beating only a handful of teams with winning records.  The Panthers seemed to have taken a year off when Jake Delhomme went down.  And the Falcons?  I'm just saying...

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

They still win this division hands down on paper.  The season isn't played on paper.  Drew Brees blah, blah.  Deuce McAllister blah, blah.  Reggie Bush... it's time for him to actually DO SOMETHING.  But look at those receivers!  Look at the potential of that defense.  This is a team that could... well, at least they should add up to about 11 wins.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

The Bucs are getting new, young blood on defense.  Look for them to dominate as usual, for this is Monte Kiffin's defense we're talking about.  Watch the young guys begin to take the reigns from the old-timers, and continue without missing a beat.  But, on the other side of the ball, the Bucs are getting longer in the tooth by the minute.  The schedule makers didn't help.  Bucs just above .500 and a glimpse of the playoffs.

CAROLINA PANTHERS

I still say the fiercest part of the Panther organization is the cheerleaders that threw a beating on some bar patrons in a Florida restaurant's womens restroom a couple seasons back.  Put those chicks in pads and look out!  In the meantime, all the fighting has been left to Steve Smith, who has been laying the beatdowns on his own teammates.  Someone point him towards the opponent!  Delhomme... elbow... watch closely.  And see the Panthers scratch out a seven and nine kind of season.

ATLANTA FALCONS

Draft a rookie QB.  Again.  Give him more money than is needed to fund entire countries in other parts of the world.  Again.  And then hope that a 60 Minutes news crew and PETA protesters don't show up in your front lawn.  That's where Arthur Blank is today.   I'm telling you, he keeps his blinds cracked and shivers every time a car pulls in his driveway.  Here's a bold prediction: The Falcons will turn it around and be on top again.  Just not this year.  I'll give them four wins - I figure that many teams will look past them this season.  Because they won't beat anyone who shows up to play.

The NFC West

For so long I've called this division the NFC Wuss.  It has been a long time since any real competition has sprung up among these four teams.  Usually one is okay (Seahawks of the last several years) and the rest are woeful.  Hey, that 49ers Coach Mike Nolan sure looks good on the sideline in suits, though.  Ah, but this year things may be a little different.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

I came real close to reversing these top two teams, but I figure the Cardinals need to earn that spot.  I can't coronate them without it playing out.  Mike Holmgren's last season should inspire some fervor from the 'Hawks.  Jim Mora is in the wings.  Seahawks will win this division with nine wins and the tie-breaker.

ARIZONA CARDINALS

This is a coaching call.  Ken Whisenhunt will be in the running for Coach of the Year, mark my words.  The first clue we had to this is the decision to start bargain Kurt Warner over the richy-rich Matt Leinart.  It's about winning now, baby!  Watch for this team to be in every game, and win more than we all thought they would.  Cards at nine wins also.  Will it get them into the playoffs?

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Another gutsy coaching call.  To cast a minimum-wage/journeyman QB like J.T. O'Sullivan into the line-up and to sit the franchise QB Alex Smith tells us a lot about Mike Nolan.  I suspect that this team will surprise many who are expecting very little from them.  Mike Martz will get you something.  Look for them to struggle to reach .500, but to do so in a way that fosters great expectations for the future.

St. LOUIS RAMS

My darling pick last year before the sky fell in week one, this year looks different to me.  Where I once saw promise, I see mountains to scale.  Where I once saw a Coach of the Year candidate, I now see a 'First Coach to be Fired' candidate.  Where I predicted a surprise return to Super Bowl glory, now I predict a thoroughly competitive run for next year's first draft pick.  Rams, a woeful finish.